Turning Point USA straw poll at AmericaFest 2025 shows overwhelming conservative support for Vice President JD Vance
A Turning Point USA straw poll at AmericaFest 2025 in Phoenix (Dec. 18–21) showed Vice President JD Vance winning overwhelming support — about 84.2% — among attendees, conference organizers and local outlets reported the results.
- Dominant result: The AmericaFest straw poll recorded roughly 84.2% support for Vice President JD Vance as the preferred 2028 Republican nominee.
- Organizational backing: TPUSA leadership — including CEO Erika Kirk — offered public endorsement and pledged organizational support for Vance.
- Verification caveats: Multiple outlets reported slightly different figures (e.g., 82.6% in some images) and some detailed threat-count figures circulating online remain unverified.
- Contextual limits: Straw polls reflect conference attendees, not a representative national sample; treat them as indicators of activist energy rather than definitive gauges of electability.
What the AmericaFest 2025 straw poll measured
Turning Point USA staged AmericaFest 2025 as a large conservative conference drawing attendees from TPUSA chapters and allied networks. The AmericaFest 2025 straw poll asked attending conservatives who they preferred as the Republican nominee in 2028. Straw polls reflect views of attendees at the event, not a random or representative sample of voters statewide or nationally.
TPUSA statements: TPUSA and Turning Point Action said the poll shows grassroots energy behind Vance. TPUSA spokesman Andrew Kolvet described the result as the highest in the poll’s history and TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk offered public support and the promise of organizational backing for Vance. See coverage from Fox News: Turning Point poll reveals conservatives “all in” for JD Vance and reporting summarized by EvriMagaci coverage of TPUSA event and endorsements.
Discrepancies and verification issues
Independent reporters and multiple outlets noted slightly different figures from various images and posts shared during and after the event. Some social posts showed Vance at 82.6% while other reporting cited 84.2%. Sources reporting the differences include local affiliates such as Fox17 local report on AmericaFest straw poll, KATV coverage, and KFOX-TV coverage.
Notably, a separate claim circulating after the event reported precise counts for answers to a question about “the biggest threat facing America” — for example listing 31,008 responses for “radical Islam” and other tallies. Those exact numbers do not appear in mainstream reporting and lack independent confirmation. Major outlets that covered the event did not corroborate those detailed numeric claims; journalists should treat such figures as unverified unless TPUSA or Turning Point Action releases full poll data and methodology.
How straw polls differ from scientific polls
Straw polls capture the views of a specific crowd — in this case, politically active conservatives who attended AmericaFest. They are useful for gauging enthusiasm inside a movement and signaling where activists and organizers are focusing energy. They are not scientific measures of the general electorate and typically have selection bias: participants self-select to attend and to vote in the poll.
Campaign strategists and journalists treat these polls as early indicators of movement momentum, not definitive measures of electability. Analysts caution against extrapolating straw-poll percentages directly to statewide or national primary vote shares without additional, representative polling.
Other polls and Vance’s national standing
Outside of AmericaFest, at least one December 2025 AtlasIntel survey — referenced in post-event coverage — showed Vance leading a hypothetical GOP primary with 47%, ahead of Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis. That poll and others suggested rising name recognition and approval for Vance among conservative voters, including a reported approval rating just above 45%. Those broader polls differ in methodology and sample from the AmericaFest straw poll and should be read as complementary, not direct confirmation. (Source: EvriMagaci coverage of TPUSA event and endorsements.)
Vance’s public position on 2028
Vice President Vance has not announced a 2028 presidential campaign. He has publicly said his focus is on the 2026 midterm elections and on coordinating with President Trump before making decisions about 2028. TPUSA’s enthusiasm and Erika Kirk’s endorsement could push discussion about a potential Vance 2028 bid, but analysts note endorsements from activist groups are one factor among many — fundraising, early-state voters, national polls, and other major figures will shape any formal campaign.
“This result represents the highest in the poll’s history,” said TPUSA spokesman Andrew Kolvet, and TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk offered public backing at the conference.
Turning Point USA endorsement and organizational muscle
TPUSA and its offshoots have a track record of mobilizing students and young conservative activists. Erika Kirk’s public endorsement at AmericaFest — captured on event video — signals the organization is willing to put its brand behind Vance. That can matter in early-state organizing, social media amplification, and volunteer recruitment.
Event video and coverage of the endorsement are available from TPUSA and event recordings: Event video on YouTube showing TPUSA remarks and endorsement and EvriMagaci coverage.
Implications for California
Economic and political landscape
- Fundraising and donor flows: California hosts wealthy donors and committees that can influence national GOP contests. A visible activist endorsement could redirect small-dollar fundraising and activist attention to a potential Vance effort.
- Primary calendars and delegate math: California’s large delegate count makes it a prized contest; national activist enthusiasm can shape narratives and media coverage that influence California voters.
Policy and issue framing
The questions and priorities voiced by AmericaFest attendees — immigration, national security, affordability and public safety — indicate the themes a Vance-aligned campaign might emphasize to appeal to California conservatives and certain suburban voters.
Political organizing and turnout
- Youth and campus influence: TPUSA’s campus organizing could shift engagement in targeted districts and potentially affect local races.
- Local GOP dynamics: California’s Republican Party divides between moderates and hardliners; a national activist endorsement could sharpen those divisions or force local leaders to choose sides.
Reporting and verification needs for California readers
California journalists should seek TPUSA’s full poll data, methodology and raw figures before treating the AmericaFest straw poll as predictive for the state. Any claim with precise respondent counts (for example, “31,008” for a listed threat) should be independently verified with TPUSA or Turning Point Action.
Sources and further reading
- Fox News: Turning Point poll reveals conservatives “all in” for JD Vance
- EvriMagaci coverage of TPUSA event and endorsements
- Fox17: Local report on AmericaFest straw poll
- KATV coverage of the straw poll
- KFOX-TV coverage
- Event video on YouTube showing TPUSA remarks and endorsement
Reporting continues as campaigns and organizations release full data and official statements.
